中華電信雖緊急啟動備用通訊，恢復市話、網路，但有線電視、MOD截至目前為止，仍無法觀看。中華電信表示，海底電纜今年已經斷四次，維修費超過5000萬，這回預估月底，通訊電信才能全面恢復正常。
至於海底電纜斷線原因，當地民眾質疑，和中國抽砂船在當地海域抽砂脫不了關係。對此，中華電信表示，海底電纜的確被船隻挖斷，經緊急搶修，所有用戶11日恢復正常上網，而有線電視仍無法正常收訊。
【其他文章推薦】
※幫你考照過關，堆高機裝卸操作教學影片大公開 !
※高效率洗滌塔活性碳設備,能去除多少有機溶劑?
※票選推薦煮婦最愛手壓封口機,省荷包不犧牲品質
※各種升降平台款式?
※APV產品要用於食品加工可在哪購買?
※哪裡買的到省力省空間，方便攜帶的購物推車?
※聚甘新
環境資訊中心外電；姜唯 翻譯；林大利 審校；稿源：Carbon Brief
Carbon Brief報導，根據全球碳計畫（）的研究，全世界用於生產糧食的氮肥，可能會使全球升溫2°C以內的氣候目標更難達成。
全世界用於生產糧食的氮肥，可能會使全球升溫2°C以內的氣候目標更難達成。照片來源：StateofIsrael（CC BY 2.0）
全球碳計畫探討一氧化二氮（N2O）排放如何加劇氣候變遷，進行首次的全面性評估。研究，過去40年間，人類產生的一氧化二氮排放增加了30%，主要原因是農業使用。
肉類和奶製品需求成長也是重要推手，因為牲畜糞便會導致一氧化二氮排放，而且氮肥通常也用於生產動物飼料。
其中人類產生的一氧化二氮排放量成長極快的國家包括巴西、中國和印度。
一氧化二氮是能夠大氣中的溫室氣體，就100年為期來看，能耐是二氧化碳的300倍，僅次於二氧化碳和甲烷，是氣候變遷的第三大貢獻者。
氣體透過各種自然過程釋放到大氣中，包括土壤和海洋中微生物的活動。有些自然過程，包括平流層和對流層中的化學反應，則會減少一氧化二氮排放。
但是，人類活動也會導致一氧化二氮進入大氣。人類產生的一氧化二氮排放主要，化石燃料業和生質燃燒也會產生，但影響較小。
新研究探討2007至2016年所有排放一氧化二氮排放的方式，包括人類活動和自然過程，以計算出全球首個「一氧化二氮預算」。
奧本大學國際氣候與全球變遷研究中心主任說，研究結果顯示，除非採取行動去抑制，否則人為一氧化二氮排放可能影響巴黎協定全球暖化遠低於2°C的目標。「研究結果最令人驚訝的發現是，當前一氧化二氮排放趨勢與實現巴黎協定氣候目標的可能途徑不相容。」
2007至2016年間，全球一氧化二氮排放量平均每年淨增加430萬噸，包括自然和人為來源產生的排放。
同一時間，人為一氧化二氮排放量成長30%，上升到每年730萬噸，其中一半以上來自提高農業產量的氮肥。
根據2019年政府間氣候變遷專門委員會（IPCC）發表的，自1961年以來，全球農業肥料的使用量增加了9倍。
此外，肉類和奶製品需求不斷成長也是農業排放量增加的原因。「肉類和奶製品需求持續成長、牧場草地擴張，全球牲畜糞便生產和管理相關的一氧化二氮排放量也隨之大增。」
研究顯示，自1980年代以來，農業一氧化二氮排放量在東亞和南亞、南美和非洲的成長最快。同時，北美的農業一氧化二氮排放一直維持高水準，而歐洲的農業一氧化二氮排放則有小幅下降。
科學家也將目前一氧化二氮排放量與未來兩種氣候變遷可能情境中的排放量做比較，分別是「代表性濃度途徑（RCPs）」和「共享社會經濟途徑（SSPs）」。
下圖A顯示了全球一氧化二氮排放量與RCPs預測排放量相比。圖C是全球一氧化二氮濃度與RCPs預測濃度的比較。（在RCP2.6的假設情境下，全世界成功將全球暖化限制在2°C以下，RCP8.5則是排放量非常高的假設情境，在這個情境下，本世紀末溫度可能升高約4.3°C或更多。）
圖B顯示全球一氧化二氮排放量與SSPs的預測排放量的比較，而圖D顯示全球一氧化二氮濃度與SSPs的預測濃度的比較。（SSP3是各國在氣候行動上幾乎沒有合作的假設情境，SSP1是世界一同聚焦實現氣候目標的假設情境。）
圖上黑線是平均一氧化二氮排放量，藍色虛線是「自下而上」（bottom-up）估算值，以為基礎，黃色虛線是「自上而下」（top-down）估算值，以和衛星資料為基礎。
歷年與預測的一氧化二氮（N2O）排放（A，B）和濃度（C，D）趨勢圖。圖片來源：
結果，目前一氧化二氮排放與高排放情境（RCP8.5）相符，並高過所有的SSPs情境。
研究作者、澳洲聯邦科學與工業研究組織（CSIRO）氣候研究中心首席科學家、全球碳計畫執行董事康納戴爾（Pep Canadell）博士說，這表示要將全球暖化限制在2°C以下，未來的幾十年需要迅速減少一氧化二氮排放。
「要種出能養活我們的大量糧食，全球糧食系統免不了會排放一些一氧化二氮，但是我們必須大幅提高使用效率來減少排放。」康納戴爾博士說。
未參與研究的阿伯丁大學植物和土壤科學系主任史密斯（Pete Smith）教授說，這表示全世界需要改變飲食習慣因應氣候變遷。 「我們必須找到更有效率的糧食生產方法，同時降低氮的用量和每單位產品的排放量。 我們還必須重新設計糧食體系，使其減少依賴肉類和奶製品等效率低下的糧食供應鏈，並顯著減少糧食浪費，在地球可負荷範圍內養活我們所有人。」
Nitrogen fertiliser use could ‘threaten global climate goals’ by DAISY DUNNE
The world’s use of nitrogen fertilisers for food production could threaten efforts to keep global warming below 2C above pre-industrial levels.
That is according to the Global Carbon Project’s first comprehensive assessment of how nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are contributing to climate change.
Published in Nature, the results show that human-caused N2O emissions have increased by 30% over the past four decades – with the use of nitrogen fertilisers in agriculture playing a major role in the uptick.
A growing demand for meat and dairy products has also contributed to the surge. This is because livestock manure causes N2O emissions and nitrogen fertilisers are often used in the production of animal feed, the scientists say.
The countries with the fastest growing human-caused N2O emissions include Brazil, China and India, the research adds.
Potent pollutant
N2O is a long-lived greenhouse gas that is almost 300 times more potent than CO2 over a 100-year period. It is the third-largest contributor to climate change after CO2 and methane.
The gas is released into the atmosphere by various natural processes, including through the activity of microbes in soils and oceans. Other natural processes, including chemical reactions in the stratosphere and troposphere, cause a reduction in N2O emissions.
However, human activities can also cause N2O to be released into the atmosphere. Human-caused N2O emissions chiefly come from agriculture, with the fossil-fuel industry and biomass burning also contributing to a lesser degree.
The new assessment considered all the ways in which human activities and natural processes contributed to N2O emissions from 2007-16 in order to produce the first global “N2O budget”.
The findings show that, unless curbed, human-caused N2O emissions could threaten the Paris Agreement’s target of keeping global warming “well below” 2C, says lead author Prof Hanqin Tian, director of the International Center for Climate and Global Change Research at Auburn University in Alabama. He tells Carbon Brief:
“The most surprising result of the study was the finding that current trends in N2O emissions are not compatible with pathways consistent to achieve the climate goals of the Paris Agreement.”
First budget
The infographic below, which was produced by the Global Carbon project, summarises the findings. On the infographic, orange arrows show human-caused N2O emissions while green arrows show natural N2O emissions. A blue arrow indicates the reduction in N2O emissions provided by chemical reactions in the upper atmosphere (“atmospheric chemical sink”).
The infographic shows that global N2O emissions increased by a net 4.3m tonnes a year, on average, from 2007-16. This figure includes N2O emissions from both natural and human-caused sources.
In that time, human-caused N2O emissions rose to 7.3m tonnes per year. This is 30% higher than four decades ago, the study says.
More than half of human-caused N2O emissions come from agriculture. The main driver of these emissions are nitrogen fertilisers, which are routinely sprayed overfood crops in order to boost yields.
Fertiliser application on crops has increased nine-fold worldwide since 1961, according to a recent landmark report on land and climate change from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released in 2019.
However, a growing demand for meat and dairy products is also a driver of increasing agricultural emissions, the researchers say in their paper:
“Growing demand for meat and dairy products has substantially increased global N2O emissions from livestock manure production and management associated with the expansion of pastures and grazing land.”
The assessment shows that, since the 1980s, agricultural N2O emissions have been rising the fastest in East and South Asia, South America and Africa.
Meanwhile, agricultural N2O emissions in North America have stayed consistently high, while Europe has seen a small dip in its agricultural N2O emissions.
Outpaced
As part of their analysis, the scientists explored how current N2O emissions compare with those from the scenarios used to make future projections about climate change.
These include the “Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCPs) and the “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways” (SSPs).
Chart A below shows how global N2O emissions compare with projected emissions from the RCPs. Chart C, meanwhile, shows how global concentrations of N2O compare to projected concentrations from the RCPs.
(RCP2.6 is a scenario where the world successfully limits global warming to below 2C, whereas RCP8.5 is a scenario of very high emissions, where temperatures could rise by around 4.3C or more by the end of the century.)
Chart B shows how global N2O emissions compare with projected emissions from the SSPs, while chart D shows how global concentrations of N2O compare to projected concentrations from the SSPs.
(SSP3 is a scenario where countries do little to cooperate on climate action, whereas SSP1 is a scenario where the world shifts its focus to meeting climate targets.)
On the charts, the black line shows average N2O emissions, whereas the blue line shows “bottom-up” estimates and the yellow line shows “top-down” estimates. (Bottom-up estimates are based on country inventory data, whereas top-up estimates are obtained from global models and satellite data.)
in order to limit global warming to below 2C, N2O emissions will need to be rapidly reduced in the coming decades, explains study author Dr Pep Canadell, chief research scientist at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Climate Research Centre in Australia and executive director of the Global Carbon Project. He tells Carbon Brief:
“The global food system will always leak some N2O given there are no alternatives to nitrogen fertiliser for growing so much of the food we eat. However, we must become much more efficient in the way we use it, which will lead to significant emission reductions.”
The findings reinforce the message that the world needs to change its eating habits in order to tackle climate change, says Prof Pete Smith, chair of plant and soil science at the University of Aberdeen, who was not involved in the research. He tells Carbon Brief:
“The study underlines that we must find more efficient ways of producing food, with lower nitrogen inputs and emissions per unit of product. But also, we must redesign our current food system so that it can feed us all within ‘planetary boundaries’ by reducing reliance on inefficient supply chains such as meat and dairy and by dramatically reducing food waste.”
※ 全文及圖片詳見：（）
如果有一件事是重要的，如果能為孩子實現一個願望，那就是人類與大自然和諧共存。
於特有生物研究保育中心服務，小鳥和棲地是主要的研究對象。是龜毛的讀者，認為龜毛是探索世界的美德。
延伸閱讀
【其他文章推薦】
※選擇示波器的10 項考量因素
※專業客製化禮物、贈品設計，辦公用品常見【L夾】搖身一變大受好評!!
※全自動飲水機與一般飲水機差異在哪?
※哪裡買的到省力省空間，方便攜帶的購物推車?
※如何知道自已的電腦cpu支不支持AVX指令集?
※票選推薦煮婦最愛手壓封口機,省荷包不犧牲品質
※台灣區spx集團已成立多久?
※聚甘新
武漢肺炎（2019冠狀病毒疾病，COVID-19）疫情不僅改變人的生活，也改變奈良鹿的生態，奈良出現多隻鹿對鹿餅不屑一顧的現象。協助調查奈良鹿生態的北海道大學助理教授立澤史郎表示，在武漢肺炎疫情發生以前，許多鹿聚集在奈良公園開闊的場所，但在春天以後，回到森林、回歸野生生活的鹿增加了。
報導指出，由於餵食鹿餅的觀光客減少，鹿的注意力回到自然食物上，回歸原本野生的生態。雖然鹿群冷淡的態度多少令人感到失望，但這也許對鹿才是好事。
【其他文章推薦】
※影響示波器測試準確度的五大因素
※無毒橡膠墊片哪裡買的到?
※十大封口機人氣排行榜-烘焙必備幫手!
※哪裡買的到省力省空間，方便攜帶的購物推車?
※買不起高檔茶葉，精緻包裝茶葉罐，也能撐場面!
※(全省)堆高機租賃保養一覽表
※聚甘新
摘錄自2020年10月14日中央社報導
美國加州官員今（14日）警告，炎熱、乾燥的環境加上強風助長，恐使得已是加州史上最嚴重野火的火勢再度惡化。
路透社報導，加州北部強風和南部極端高溫所造成的環境，除將助長早先於夏季開始的野火，也可能掀起新的火苗，聯邦和地方政府無不敦促居民做好準備。隨著加州南部出現攝氏32°C高溫，美國國家氣象局（National Weather Service）發布高溫警告，要求居民小心任何火源。
本年度的野火，已經燒毀加州400多萬英畝土地，面積是2018年最高紀錄的兩倍。該州史上最大的6場大火有5場在2020年間發生。大火導致31人喪命，並吞噬超過9200棟建築。專家認為，化石燃料引發的乾旱和氣候變遷，導致管理不當的森林更加易燃，引發極端火勢。
【其他文章推薦】
※如何利用一般常見的「L型資料夾」達到廣告宣傳效果?
※哪裡買的到省力省空間，方便攜帶的購物推車?
※飲水機皆有含淨水功能嗎?
※錢要花在刀口上，選購隔熱紙前必須知道的九件事 !
※各種升降平台款式?
※(全省)堆高機租賃保養一覽表
※石墨與鑽石區別在哪?
※聚甘新
朝日新聞報導，宮城縣預定在11月9日召開會議，聽取市町村長的意見，雖然也有人反對重啟，但村井基於「全體的意向」，傾向同意重啟。村井做出最終決定後，最快將在11月中旬告知經濟產業大臣梶山弘志。
由於女川核電廠2號機的安全對策工程預定在2023年完工，可能會在同年重啟運轉。
女川核電廠2號機重啟運轉的申請，今年2月通過日本原子力規制委員會審查，成為位於311大地震重災區首座合格的核電廠，也是第2座遭受海嘯侵襲重生的核電廠。女川核電廠內共有3座發電機組，東北電力公司已決定將1號機廢爐，並有意讓3號機也能重啟運轉。
【其他文章推薦】
※幫你考照過關，堆高機裝卸操作教學影片大公開 !
※高效率洗滌塔活性碳設備,能去除多少有機溶劑?
※票選推薦煮婦最愛手壓封口機,省荷包不犧牲品質
※各種升降平台款式?
※APV產品要用於食品加工可在哪購買?
※哪裡買的到省力省空間，方便攜帶的購物推車?
※聚甘新
摘錄自2020年10月14日自由時報報導
日前誤中山豬吊受傷的台灣黑熊，經東勢林區管理處與特有生物研究保育中心於10月1日成功救援，運送低海拔試驗站照護，13日進行第一次健康檢查及移籠評估，獸醫師表示，其傷口已逐漸恢復，預計仍需2至3週等待傷口癒合，才能野放。
東勢林管處處表示，誤中套索之東卯山黑熊，在密集照養治療12日後，特生中心野生動物急救站獸醫師團隊，將黑熊麻醉後進行傷口檢查，發現其左前腳傷掌的第一指處有較深之開放性傷口，第一指骨外露，經截除骨頭及傷口處理後，尚須一段時間等待傷口復原癒合。
另左前肢腕部因套索引起的環狀傷口已有收斂並逐漸恢復中；嘴部上嘴唇處仍有當初咬鋼索造成的傷口未癒合，但較不嚴重。
特生中心獸醫師團隊將東卯山黑熊麻醉，秤重後確認東卯山黑熊目前重達83.7公斤，需五人合力才能抬至醫療台上檢查治療。 東勢林區管理處提供。
特生中心獸醫師團隊檢查東卯山黑熊左前腳傷口。 東勢林區管理處提供。
待東卯山黑熊傷口癒合，將會先移至半戶外之熊舍進行觀察。東勢林區管理處提供。
【其他文章推薦】
※選擇示波器的10 項考量因素
※專業客製化禮物、贈品設計，辦公用品常見【L夾】搖身一變大受好評!!
※全自動飲水機與一般飲水機差異在哪?
※哪裡買的到省力省空間，方便攜帶的購物推車?
※如何知道自已的電腦cpu支不支持AVX指令集?
※票選推薦煮婦最愛手壓封口機,省荷包不犧牲品質
※台灣區spx集團已成立多久?
※聚甘新
摘錄自2020年10月14日公視報導
石門水庫水位持續下探，新竹苗栗的水庫水情也一樣嚴峻。農委會14日宣布，桃竹苗地區第二期1.9萬公頃農田實施停灌，其中水稻就占了1.3萬公頃，補償金會以農家賺款的105%、加上生產成本來發放，約每公頃10多萬元，農委會表示這是最照顧農民的補償方式。
不過桃竹苗水稻正值抽穗期，再過一個月左右就能收成，桃園農民指出這樣等於心血白費，代耕業者則認為若地主與耕作者非同一人，誰領補償金恐有爭議。而米穀商業同業公會全國聯合會也批評，停灌會造成加入契作的農民無法供貨，對整個產業是打擊，牽連後端加工業者。
此次補償總金額粗估超過10億，由用水單位負擔，農委會指出，此時是停灌最好的停損點，但遭質疑是否犧牲農業？副主委陳駿季強調，此次停灌不會導致糧食安全問題，是經過綜合評估才做成的決定，並非犧牲農業。
【其他文章推薦】
※哪裡買的到省力省空間，方便攜帶的購物推車?
※廢氣洗滌塔,叫得動, 找得到的專業廠商
※市面十大品牌封口機!該如何選購?
※塑膠射出成型加工商品有哪些?
※各款電動堆高機價格?
※掌握產品行銷策略,帶你認識商品包裝設計基本要素
※聚甘新
摘錄自2020年10月19日中央社報導
日本沖繩時報報導，沖繩縣大宜味村的白蝦養殖場發生「蝦類急性肝胰腺壞死病」（AHPND），造成約9.8萬尾白蝦死亡。AHPND是甲殼類疾病，對人類不具致病性，過去並沒有傳染給人類的紀錄。這是日本首次出現此類疾病，病源可能來自從泰國輸入的蝦苗。
沖繩縣水產課今天（19日）表示，大宜味村的白蝦養殖場發生日本國內首例AHPND，由於白蝦與沖繩養殖業盛行的車蝦品種相近，若疫情蔓延可能導致養殖業損失慘重，沖繩縣將與大宜味村與中央政府合作防堵疫情。
18日檢驗報告出爐，發現AHPND呈陽性，沖繩縣政府同日要求該養殖場處理養殖蝦與進行消毒。並且已限制該養殖場不得將蝦子移到別處，感染的蝦子也不可在市場上販售。
【其他文章推薦】
※影響示波器測試準確度的五大因素
※無毒橡膠墊片哪裡買的到?
※十大封口機人氣排行榜-烘焙必備幫手!
※哪裡買的到省力省空間，方便攜帶的購物推車?
※買不起高檔茶葉，精緻包裝茶葉罐，也能撐場面!
※(全省)堆高機租賃保養一覽表
※聚甘新
環境資訊中心外電；姜唯 翻譯；林大利 審校；稿源：Carbon Brief
國際能源署（IEA）13日發表《2020年世界能源展望（）》報告。這份長達464頁的展望報告指出，武漢肺炎（COVID-19）造成的動盪將使未來20年全球能源使用存在高度不確定性。
武漢肺炎（COVID-19）造成的動盪將使未來20年全球能源使用存在高度不確定性。照片來源：Sheila Sund（CC BY 2.0）
今年的報告共提供四個可能途徑或情境，預測到2040年。四種情境中，再生能源全都會顯著成長。在IEA認為最有可能的情境中，到2040年，太陽能產量將比2018年的預期增加43％，部分原因是太陽能價格比預期便宜20至50％。
IEA指出，儘管再生能源成長加速、煤炭結構性衰退，但除非採取更強勢的氣候行動，否則要宣布全球石油使用量達到峰值還為時過早。同樣地，除非全球暖化因應政策加速，否則到2040年天然氣需求可能還會成長30％。
這表示，儘管全球二氧化碳排放量已經達到峰值，但卻遠遠沒有達到穩定氣候所需的達到峰值後快速下降。IEA表示，要實現2050年淨零碳排，需要全球經濟各個層面都使出「洪荒之力」，而非只靠電業。
此次報告的主要途徑仍然是「承諾政策情境」（Stated Policies Scenario, STEPS），即假設政府都能實現自身承諾的情境。不過，IEA對政府是否腳踏實地往目標邁進，有自己的評估。
報告也透過「永續發展情境」（Sustainable Development Scenario, SDS）說明，政府的承諾還需要如何加強才能更加永續。
今年的報告首次詳細模擬了「2050年實現淨零排放的情況」（NZE2050），也就是到2030年，二氧化碳排放量比2010年低45％，2050年實現淨零，並且有50％的機會將升溫控制在1.5°C內，並將說明要實現這個情境需要做哪些事。
最後是「延後復甦情境（DRS）」，即當武漢肺炎疫情持續，全球經濟需要更長的時間來恢復，GDP和能源需求成長急劇下降的情況下，將會發生什麼事。
在所有情境下，再生能源都佔需求成長的最大宗。相反的，隨著全球氣候政策積極度增加，化石燃料成長趨弱，甚至下降。
今年報告最重大的變化之一是，IEA估算了不同發電技術的成本。根據報告，如今的太陽能比IEA去年預測的便宜約20％至50％，具體幅度取決於地區。陸上和海上風電的預估成本也以差不多的幅度降低。
此次的分析以建立新發電容量的開發商的平均「資本成本」為基礎。過去，所有技術資本成本皆為7％至8％，依每個國家的發展階段有所不同。
這次，IEA檢視各種證據發現，太陽能的資本成本要低得多，在歐洲和美國分別為2.6～5.0％，在中國為4.4～5.5％，在印度為8.8~10.0％，主要是因為有減少再生能源投資風險的政策存在。
IEA表示，在最佳地點並有最優惠的政策支持和融資條件，太陽能現在可以「達到或低於」每兆瓦時（MWh）20美元的水準。「對於利用低成本融資高品質資源的計畫來說，太陽能發電現在是有史以來最便宜的電力來源。」
IEA表示，新的公用事業規模太陽能電廠現在在歐洲和美國的成本為30～60美元／MWh，在中國和印度等有保證價格機制的國家只有20～40美元／MWh。
IEA稱，這些成本完全低於新建燃煤電廠的平均成本，並且與中國和印度現有燃煤電廠的運營成本相差無幾。
現在陸上和海上風電被視為可以獲得低成本融資。最新報告對這些技術的成本估算值更低，因為資本成本佔新再生能源開發成本的一半。
再加上過去一年政府政策的變化，IEA將再次上修其對未來20年的再生能源發展預測。
到2040年，水力以外再生能源發電量在STEPS中已達到1萬2872TWh（太瓦時），高於今日的2873 TWh，比去年的預期高出約8％，比2018年的預期水平高出22％。
太陽能是其中最大的原因。與2018年世界經濟展望相比，2040年的太陽能產量預測成長43％。相比之下，現在煤炭發電量在結構上低於先前的預測，到2040年的發電量比去年的預測低約14％。IEA稱，由於武漢肺炎的關係，煤炭永遠無法從2020年的8％下降中恢復。
值得注意的是，今年的STEPS中，2040年的天然氣產量也降低了6％，部分也是因為疫情及其對經濟和能源需求增長的長期影響。
整體而言，以太陽能為主力的再生能源滿足了STEPS中絕大部分新電力需求，到2030年將佔再生能源成長的80％，到2025年將取代煤炭成為世界最大的電力來源，超過IEA去年的「加速發展情境」預測。
IEA表示，從今年的前景看來，太陽能成本更低且成長更快，這表示從2020年開始，每年都將有破紀錄的新太陽能容量。
連續幾版報告都下修煤炭前景，今年的變化尤為明顯，這某種程度上要歸功於武漢肺炎後煤炭需求的「結構性轉變」。
IEA現在認為，未來幾年煤炭使用量會略有上升，但隨後會下降。然而，這樣的軌跡還是遠遠未達到SDS的削減幅度。
綜合上述，再生能源的迅速發展和煤炭結構性下降加總起來，有助於控制全球二氧化碳的排放量。但是，對石油和天然氣使用量的穩定需求讓碳排只會趨於平緩，不到能實現全球氣候目標迅速下降的程度。
在STEPS下，到2040年，再生能源可滿足能源需求成長的3/5，並佔總量的2/5。石油和核能的小幅成長足以抵消煤炭能源使用量的下降。
而在SDS下，到2040年，儘管石油和天然氣仍將是第一和第二大主要能源，但所有化石燃料的使用都將有所減少。相對於2019年的水準，煤炭將下降2/3，石油下降1/3，天然氣下降12％。
同時，其他再生能源（主要是風能和太陽能）將飆升至第三大，在未來20年內增長近七倍（+ 662％）。SDS中，可看到水電（+55％）、核能（+55％）和生質能（+24％）的成長幅度較小，但仍相當可觀。
到2040年，低碳能源將佔全球能源結構的44％，高於2019年的19％。根據IEA，煤炭將降至10％，為工業革命以來的最低水準。
儘管如此，還是要到2070年，全世界才會達到二氧化碳淨零排放。
此次報告花了一整章在撰寫NZE2050，並特別強調未來10年都會繼續更新。
在未來10年間，發電業將是減排的最大貢獻者。但是，能源的使用，如運輸和工業，以及個人行為的變化，也有重要的影響。IEA稱，2030年想要從SDS晉升成NZE2050需要額外減排6.4兆噸二氧化碳，就要靠這三大因素。
在NZE2050情境中，低碳電力將在2030年滿足75％的電力需求，今日這一比例為40％。到2025年，太陽能容量必須以每年約300GW（百萬瓩）的速度成長，到2030年將以近500GW的速度增長，而目前的增長速度約為100GW。
從2019年到2030年，燃煤電廠的二氧化碳排放量將減少75％，這意味著效率最低的「次臨界」燃煤電廠將被完全淘汰，大多數「超臨界」燃煤電廠也將關閉。IEA稱，這個變化大部分將發生在佔目前全球煤炭產能2/3的東南亞。
儘管NZE2050情境中，到2030年，核能將佔零碳發電量成長的一小部分，但IEA指出，「大型核電的超長交貨時間」限制了該技術在這10年間的擴張潛力。
工業碳排放量將減少約1/4，其中電氣化和能源效率功勞最大。光是在「先進經濟體」，在這10年的每個月都有超過200萬戶房屋獲得能效改善。
在運輸業，二氧化碳將下降1/5，這還沒算到2030年會有一半以上的新車是電動汽車，高於2019年的2.5％。
Solar is now ‘cheapest electricity in history’, confirms IEA by SIMON EVANS,JOSH GABBATISS
The world’s best solar power schemes now offer the “cheapest…electricity in history” with the technology cheaper than coal and gas in most major countries.
That is according to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2020. The 464-page outlook, published today by the IEA, also outlines the “extraordinarily turbulent” impact of coronavirus and the “highly uncertain” future of global energy use over the next two decades.
Reflecting this uncertainty, this year’s version of the highly influential annual outlook offers four “pathways” to 2040, all of which see a major rise in renewables. The IEA’s main scenario has 43% more solar output by 2040 than it expected in 2018, partly due to detailed new analysis showing that solar power is 20-50% cheaper than thought.
Despite a more rapid rise for renewables and a “structural” decline for coal, the IEA says it is too soon to declare a peak in global oil use, unless there is stronger climate action. Similarly, it says demand for gas could rise 30% by 2040, unless the policy response to global warming steps up.
This means that, while global CO2 emissions have effectively peaked, they are “far from the immediate peak and decline” needed to stabilise the climate. The IEA says achieving net-zero emissions will require “unprecedented” efforts from every part of the global economy, not just the power sector.
The main WEO pathway is again the “stated policies scenario” (STEPS, formerly NPS). This shows the impact of government pledges to go beyond the current policy baseline. Crucially, however, the IEA makes its own assessment of whether governments are credibly following through on their targets.
The report explains:
“The STEPS is designed to take a detailed and dispassionate look at the policies that are either in place or announced in different parts of the energy sector. It takes into account long-term energy and climate targets only to the extent that they are backed up by specific policies and measures. In doing so, it holds up a mirror to the plans of today’s policy makers and illustrates their consequences, without second-guessing how these plans might change in future.”
The outlook then shows how plans would need to change to plot a more sustainable path.
For the first time this year, the WEO has “detailed modelling” of a “net-zero emissions by 2050 case” (NZE2050). This shows what would need to happen for CO2 emissions to fall to 45% below 2010 levels by 2030 on the way to net-zero by 2050, with a 50% chance of meeting the 1.5C limit.
The final pathway in this year’s outlook is a “delayed recovery scenario” (DRS), which shows what might happen if the coronavirus pandemic lingers and the global economy takes longer to recover, with knock-on reductions in the growth of GDP and energy demand.
The chart below shows how the use of different energy sources changes under each of these pathways over the decade to 2030 (right-hand columns), relative to demand today (left).
Notably, renewables (light green) account for the majority of demand growth in all scenarios. In contrast, fossil fuels see progressively weaker growth turn to increasing declines, as the ambition of global climate policy increases, from left to right in the chart above.
One of the most significant shifts in this year’s WEO is tucked away in Annex B of the report, which shows the IEA’s estimates of the cost of different electricity generation technologies.
The table shows that solar electricity is some 20-50% cheaper today than the IEA had estimated in last year’s outlook, with the range depending on the region. There are similarly large reductions in the estimated costs of onshore and offshore wind.
This shift is the result of new analysis carried out by the WEO team, looking at the average “cost of capital” for developers looking to build new generating capacity. Previously the IEA assumed a range of 7-8% for all technologies, varying according to each country’s stage of development.
Now, the IEA has reviewed the evidence internationally and finds that for solar, the cost of capital is much lower, at 2.6-5.0% in Europe and the US, 4.4-5.5% in China and 8.8-10.0% in India, largely as a result of policies designed to reduce the risk of renewable investments.
In the best locations and with access to the most favourable policy support and finance, the IEA says the solar can now generate electricity “at or below” $20 per megawatt hour (MWh). It says:
“For projects with low-cost financing that tap high-quality resources, solar PV is now the cheapest source of electricity in history.”
The IEA says that new utility-scale solar projects now cost $30-60/MWh in Europe and the US and just $20-40/MWh in China and India, where “revenue support mechanisms” such as guaranteed prices are in place.
These costs “are entirely below the range of LCOE [levelised costs] for new coal-fired power plants” and “in the same range” as the operating cost of existing coal plants in China and India, the IEA says. This is shown in the chart below.
Onshore and offshore wind are also now assumed to have access to lower-cost finance. This accounts for the much lower cost estimates for these technologies in the latest WEO, because the cost of capital contributes up to half of the cost of new renewable developments.
When combined with changes in government policy over the past year, these lower costs mean that the IEA has again raised its outlook for renewables over the next 20 years.
This is shown in the chart below, where electricity generation from non-hydro renewables in 2040 is now seen reaching 12,872 terawatt hours (TWh) in the STEPS, up from 2,873TWh today. This is some 8% higher than expected last year and 22% above the level expected in 2018’s outlook.
Solar is the largest reason for this, with output in 2040 up 43% compared with the 2018 WEO. In contrast, the chart shows how electricity generation from coal is now “structurally” lower than previously expected, with output in 2040 some 14% lower than thought last year. The fuel never recovers from an estimated 8% drop in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, the IEA says.
Notably, the level of gas generation in 2040 is also 6% lower in this year’s STEPS, again partly as a result of the pandemic and its long-lasting impact on economic and energy demand growth.
Overall, renewables – led by the “new king” solar – meet the vast majority of new electricity demand in the STEPS, accounting for 80% of the increase by 2030.
This means they overtake coal as the world’s largest source of power by 2025, outpacing the “accelerated case” set out by the agency just a year ago.
The lower costs and more rapid growth for solar seen in this year’s outlook means there will be record-breaking additions of new solar capacity in every year from 2020, the IEA says.
Successive editions of the WEO have revised down the outlook for the dirtiest fossil fuel, with this year seeing particularly dramatic changes, thanks in part to a “structural shift” away from coal after coronavirus.
The IEA now sees coal use rising marginally over the next few years, but then going into decline, as shown in the chart below (red line). Nevertheless, this trajectory falls far short of the cuts needed to be in line with the SDS, a pathway aligned to the “well-below 2C” Paris target (yellow).
Energy outlook
Taken together, the rapid rise of renewable energy and the structural decline for coal help keep a lid on global CO2 emissions, the outlook suggests. But steady demand for oil and rising gas use mean CO2 only flattens off, rather than declining rapidly as required to meet global climate goals.
These competing trends are shown in the chart, below, which tracks primary energy demand for each fuel under the IEA STEPS, with solid lines. Overall, renewables meet three-fifths of the increase in energy demand by 2040, while accounting for another two-fifths of the total. Smaller increases for oil and nuclear are enough to offset the decline in coal energy use.
The dashed lines in the chart above show the dramatically different paths that would need to be followed to be in line with the IEA SDS, which is roughly a well-below 2C scenario.
By 2040, although oil and gas would remain the first and second-largest sources of primary energy, there would have been declines in the use of all fossil fuels. Coal would have dropped by two-thirds, oil by a third and gas by 12%, relative to 2019 levels.
Meanwhile, other renewables – primarily wind and solar – would have surged to third place, rising nearly seven-fold over the next two decades (+662%). The SDS sees smaller, but still sizeable increases for hydro (+55%), nuclear (+55%) and bioenergy (+24%).
Together, low-carbon sources would make up 44% of the global energy mix in 2040, up from 19% in 2019. Coal would fall to 10%, its lowest since the industrial revolution, according to the IEA.
Despite these rapid changes, however, the world would not see net-zero CO2 emissions until 2070, some two decades after the 2050 deadline that would be needed to stay below 1.5C.
The WEO devotes a full chapter to the NZE2050, with a particular emphasis on the changes that would be needed over the next decade to 2030.
The power sector contributes the largest portion of the savings needed over the next decade (orange wedges in the chart, above). But there are also important contributions from energy end-use (yellow), such as transport and industry, as well as from individual behaviour change (blue), explored in more detail in the next section.
These three wedges would contribute roughly equal shares of the extra 6.4GtCO2 of savings needed to go from the SDS to the NZE2050 in 2030, the IEA says.
The NZE2050 case would see low-carbon sources of electricity meeting 75% of demand in 2030, up from 40% today. Solar capacity would have to rise at a rate of around 300 gigawatts (GW) per year by the mid-2020s and nearly 500GW by 2030, against current growth of around 100GW.
CO2 emissions from coal-fired power stations would decline by 75% between 2019 and 2030. This means the least efficient “subcritical” coal plants would be phased out entirely and the majority of “supercritical” plants would also close down. The WEO says the majority of this decline would come in southeast Asia, which accounts for two-thirds of current global coal capacity.
Although nuclear would contribute a small part of the increase in zero-carbon generation by 2030 in the NZE2050, the IEA notes that the “long lead time of large-scale nuclear facilities” limits the technology’s potential to scale more quickly this decade.
For industry, CO2 emissions would fall by around a quarter, with electrification and energy efficiency making up the largest shares of the effort. More than 2m homes would get an energy efficiency retrofit during every month this decade, in “advanced economies” alone.
In the transport sector, CO2 would fall by a fifth, not including behavioural shifts counted below. By 2030, more than half of new cars would be electric, up from around 2.5% in 2019.
※ 全文及圖片詳見：（）
如果有一件事是重要的，如果能為孩子實現一個願望，那就是人類與大自然和諧共存。
於特有生物研究保育中心服務，小鳥和棲地是主要的研究對象。是龜毛的讀者，認為龜毛是探索世界的美德。
延伸閱讀
【其他文章推薦】
※如何利用一般常見的「L型資料夾」達到廣告宣傳效果?
※哪裡買的到省力省空間，方便攜帶的購物推車?
※飲水機皆有含淨水功能嗎?
※錢要花在刀口上，選購隔熱紙前必須知道的九件事 !
※各種升降平台款式?
※(全省)堆高機租賃保養一覽表
※石墨與鑽石區別在哪?
※聚甘新